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New York & Tri-State  + New York  + Finance  |  December 4, 2023
Emily Fu
By: Emily Fu

76% Office CMBS Loans Will Struggle to Refi in 2024 

In 2024, the office market faces challenges as loans mature, hindering refinancing. Moody’s Analytics forecasted $182 billion in maturing commercial real estate loans, $47 billion specifically in office loans.  

According to Moody’s assessment of CMBS office loans, around 76% face a considerable risk of being unrefinanced in 2024. This evaluation factored in various elements, including lease rollover, loans undergoing special servicing, and the debt yield of each loan to arrive at its estimations.

Trends suggest smaller loans and stable tenancies fare better. Yet, the pandemic’s legacy persists as companies downsize or relocate, raising lease renewal risks. Moody’s predicts a high risk of unrefinanced office loans in 2024 due to lease turnovers and existing loan conditions. 

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Inside The Story

About Emily Fu

Emily Fu is Content Director of Connect Commercial Real Estate, where she covers the east coast markets, including New York, Boston & New England, and DC & Mid-Atlantic markets. She produces daily news stories as well as longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. She also writes feature stories for Connect Money. With previous stints at Reuters, Seeking Alpha, and Commercial Observer, Emily has covered the finance side of the commercial real estate industry, technology, media, telecom (TMT), and fashion. She attended the Columbia Graduate School of Journalism and currently resides in Manhattan.
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