2026 Multifamily Leadership Series: Kelli Carhart, CBRE

For the fourth year of our annual Leadership Series, Connect CRE has focused on the apartment sector. We invited 18 multifamily heavyweights to provide their unfiltered views of the current market, its challenges and opportunities. The insights of these power players have been collected in a downloadable report, and we’re also presenting them individually, in alphabetical order. Here, Kelli Carhart, Head of Multifamily Capital Markets at CBRE, provides insights.

Has the debt market changed compared to a year ago, and if so, how?

The multifamily debt market is considerably more active in 2026 than a year ago. The MBA projects an 18% increase in multifamily loan originations from 2025 to 2026, driven by strengthening investment sales activity, a substantial wave of loan maturities, and the recent expansion of agency lending caps to $88 billion each for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Debt liquidity is hyper competitive, fueling spreads at 52-week highs. CBRE’s multifamily debt business was up 65% in Q1 2026, a directional marker for the broader industry.

Three themes have emerged. Sponsors are increasingly looking for flexibility to execute their business plan and time the recovery, resulting in shorter terms, with 5 years predominant. There’s also been a meaningful shift to floating rate, up to 45% of all multifamily debt originations. Expect floating rate to gain momentum with the widening of the treasuries. Finally, banks are back and creating more optionality for sponsors, whether it be via perm loans or fueling liquidity to debt fund via repo lines.

Absorption has increased this year. Is that due to a slowdown in development or other factors?

It’s both supply and demand working together but being on the back end of peak deliveries certainly helps fuel absorption. Net absorption totaled 78,100 units in Q1 2026, rebounding sharply from negative net absorption in Q4 2025, and for the first time since Q2 2025, absorption exceeded new construction completions. On the supply side, construction starts peaked at nearly 708,000 units in 2022 but are projected to finish 2025 closer to 311,000 units, with Yardi Matrix forecasting 450,000 deliveries in 2026, down 24% year-over-year. Persistently high homeownership costs continue to keep would-be buyers in the rental pool, sustaining demand from both ends.

Will we see an increase or decrease in rent prices this year?

A modest increase, but with important regional caveats. After a flat 2024-2025 rent environment, pricing power is projected to return in 2026, with rent growth moving toward 2.0% on a yearly basis. The recovery is uneven: rent growth is increasing in low-supply markets in the Northeast and Midwest, while many high-supply Sunbelt and Western markets are still seeing declines. Markets like San Francisco and Silicon Valley will continue to outperform due to job growth and a lack of overall supply. The broader trajectory is positive, with fundamentals continuing to tighten as the construction pipeline narrows heading into 2027.

Give your young self some advice.

• Don’t be afraid to take risks; the best lessons come from trial and error

• Your brand will carry your career; stay true to brand and treat everyone fairly

• Your mentors will be your biggest advocates, so treat them with immense respect professionally and personally

• Your personal life cannot be separated from your professional. Always stay engaged with your colleagues and clients on their personal and professional motivations

• Identifying solution paths to problems rather than only identifying problems will help to differentiate you from your peers

• Take a position and own it. It’s ok if you’re wrong. Having a viewpoint is a differentiator. People will remember you for your voice, not for an inaccurate prediction

CBRE has ranked first in U.S. multifamily investment sales every year since 2011. As of year-end 2025, it completed $36.2 billion in multifamily investment sales volume globally, $34.6 billion in financing volume, and had a $222.5-billion loan servicing portfolio.

Click here to read the series.