If it Quacks Like a Duck … April 13, 2026

There’s a correlation between the current labor market and the effort a duck expends just to stay in place on a pond, says economist Ryan Severino

Visit a park or any other setting where ducks are likely to congregate, and you are likely to see at least one of the birds sitting placidly on the surface of the water. At least, that’s what it appears to be doing. In fact, it’s pedaling pretty vigorously to remain stationary as well as buoyant. 

Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO, likens the current jobs picture to that avuncular-looking waterfowl. In the latest installment of his The Chief Economist column, Severino writes that the labor market appears to be in a state of equilibrium, “neither especially strong nor especially weak. But that apparent stability belies what is occurring and that conjures up the image of a duck on a pond: On the surface, it looks like it is barely moving. Underneath, its legs are kicking away briskly to hold it in place. And that has important implications for commercial real estate.”   

Just as that duck doesn’t appear to be working hard while essentially running in place, so the data present a deceptively calm state of equilibrium. Job openings, hires, separations, the quit rate and the layoff rate haven’t moved appreciably in recent months. “Firms are not cutting workers, but they are not meaningfully adding them either,” writes Severino. “There is nothing in that data that suggests stress, but also nothing that suggests momentum.” 

There may not be dramatic flourishes of rapid motion—such as the kind you’d see when a duck takes off from or lands on that watery surface—yet Severino discerns “more subsurface movement than seems apparent.” Labor market demographics have changed, due largely to slower population growth, while on the demand side, hiring has slowed amid questions about the future. “Does it make sense to hire for a position that may soon be filled by artificial intelligence?” is one such question that employers are asking. 

“Slower labor supply on one side and more cautious labor demand on the other are offsetting each other in the aggregate data,” Severino writes. “That is why the labor market looks so stable. But stability here is doing a lot of work. The duck is not drifting, but it is working hard to stay in about the same place.” 

The implications are broad and not entirely reassuring for two of the primary dynamics of CRE: leasing/occupancy and capital markets activity. On the one hand, the current labor market doesn’t portend widespread layoffs and therefore downsizing of office space; on the other hand, it doesn’t signal broad-based increases in space requirements, either. “Demand holds, but it does not build,” writes Severino. 

Conversely, hiring is on the upswing in more specialized segments such as healthcare rather than in traditional white-collar professions. That opens up investment opportunities beyond the basic food groups. 

The capital markets implications are equally challenging, Severino writes. “A labor market that is stable enough to avoid recession but not strong enough to drive meaningful hiring is consistent with a somewhat higher and more fragile rates backdrop. Add in policy uncertainty from tariffs and geopolitics, and the result is an environment where rates do not fall aggressively, and risk premia remain elevated.” 

The outcome? A duck that continues marking time with strenuous activity below the surface.