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UCLA Anderson: Subpar 2024 Growth in CA, Followed by 2025-26 Acceleration
California will experience a full year of subpar economic growth in 2024, followed by two years of growth rates higher than the U.S., led by technology and aerospace, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast. The current slower growth results from specific sectoral weaknesses in California, evinced by its high unemployment rate.
In 2023, California’s GDP grew at a 3.7% compound annual rate, faster than the nation’s and all but three states: Washington, Florida and Texas. However, the growth rate in the second quarter of 2024 was 2.8% on an annualized basis, 0.2 percentage points below the U.S. growth rate.
UCLA Anderson said although the state’s growth rate in 2025 and 2026 will outpace the U.S., it won’t be by much. “The risks to the forecast are political and geopolitical, and, on the downside, the interest rates could potentially still disrupt the current expansion,” according to the forecast. On the upside, “international immigration and accelerated onshoring of technical manufacturing could increase growth.”
- ◦Economy
