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CNBC Survey Lowers Risk of Recession but Sees Fewer Rate Cuts
There’s a mix of upside and downside in the latest CNBC Fed Survey, CNBC reported Tuesday. On the upside, forecasters are increasingly confident that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession and pull off a soft landing. The potential downside: less easing by the Federal Reserve with the possibility that officials at their meeting this week forecast fewer rate cuts in 2024 than they did in December.
At the Fed’s two-day meeting, which ends Wednesday, the central bank is largely expected to keep the federal funds target rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. “For now, the narrative that the U.S. economy is so fragile that it cannot survive without ultra-low rates has been debunked and discarded into the rubbish bin of history,” wrote John Donaldson, director of fixed income at the Haverford Trust Company, in response to the survey.
CNBC reported that the March survey finds the average probability of a soft landing at 52%, up from 47% in the January survey, and the first time it has climbed above 50% since the question was first asked in July. The probability of a recession in the next 12 months fell to 32%, the lowest since February 2022, and down from 39% in January and 63% in November.
- ◦Financing
- ◦Economy
