Slumping Job Growth Exerts Pressure on Business Cycle Index

The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded at a 4.3% annualized rate in July 2018, which was below the long-run average of 6%. While the metro’s unemployment rate dipped to 2.8% during the same period, job growth remained flat.

According to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the metro’s growth stood at a 1.4% annualized rate, year to date. While payrolls in the construction and mining sector increased over the three-month period ending in July, jobs were lost in the professional and business services, government and health and education services sectors.

Also dropping was housing affordability — during Q2 2018, the percentage of homes sold that a median-income family can afford fell to 53.1%. This represented the lowest level since 2007. Austin home inventories stood at 2.5 months, while existing-home sales edged up.

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