MBA Trims Projections on CRE Mortgage Volume Increases for 2024, 2025

Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to finish the year at $539 billion in 2024, a 26% increase from 2023’s total of $429 billion, according to an updated baseline forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The new year-end projection is down about 7.5% from the $576 billion MBA forecasted at the start of 2024.

Multifamily lending alone is expected to rise to $297 billion this year, up 21% from last year’s estimate of $246 billion. MBA now anticipates borrowing and lending next year will increase to $665 billion in total commercial real estate lending, with $390 billion of that total in multifamily. Both of the latest 2025 projections are lower than the association’s estimates in January of this year.

“The recent moderation in interest rates, coupled with the large volume of loans maturing in coming quarters, should prompt an uptick in mortgage borrowing from the low levels we’ve seen over the last two years,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research. “The exact timing of the bounce-back will depend on how quickly property owners jump on long-term interest rates that are down significantly from where they were a year ago.”

Pictured: MBA headquarters in Washington, DC.

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About Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny serves as Senior Content Director for Connect Commercial Real Estate, a role to which he brings 16-plus years’ experience covering the commercial real estate industry and 30-plus years in business-to-business journalism. In this capacity, he oversees daily operations while also reporting on both local/regional markets and national trends, covering individual transactions across all property types, as well as delving into broader subject matter. He produces 7-10 daily news stories per day and works with the Connect team and clients to develop longer-form content, ranging from Q&As to thought-leadership pieces. Prior to joining Connect, Paul was Managing Editor for both Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com at American Lawyer Media, where he oversaw operations at both publications while also producing daily news and feature-length articles. His tenure in B2B publishing stretches back into the print era, and he has served as Editor in Chief on four national trade publications. Since 1999, Paul has volunteered as the newsletter editor of passenger rail advocacy groups (one national, one local).

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