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MBA Forecasts 46% Drop in CRE Mortgage Volume for 2023
Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to fall to $442 billion this year, a 46% decline from 2022’s $816-billion total. That’s according to an updated baseline forecast released Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), which has lowered its estimates on 2023 commercial real estate mortgage volume three times since February.
Multifamily lending alone is expected to drop to $285 billion this year, down 41% from 2022. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending next year will increase to $559 billion in total CRE lending, including $339 billion of multifamily lending.
“The logjam in the commercial real estate markets that began last summer has remained firmly in place,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s head of commercial real estate research. “Questions about supply and demand dynamics for some properties, the rise and volatility in interest rates, and the low number of transactions and coinciding lack of price discovery have all contributed to a marked decline in demand for new mortgages. Unfortunately, those and other factors will likely continue to exert downward pressure on borrowing and lending volumes in the coming quarters.”
For up-to-the-minute insights on the state of the market and what’s next in the current cycle, be sure to attend Connect Investment & Finance 2023 on Oct. 24 at the Hyatt Regency O’Hare in Rosemont, IL. Click here to register.
- ◦Financing
